Can the U.S. Defend Taiwan？ Pentagon and AIT Views Diverge
United Daily News Commentary, December 11, 2025
The administration of President Lai Ching-te has proposed an eight-year NT$1.25 trillion (about US$39.8 billion) special national defense budget. The opposition demanded that the president report to the Legislative Yuan but were unsuccessful, preventing the bill from being placed on the agenda for review. Director Raymond Greene of the American Institute in Taiwan (AIT) took a strong stance, “explaining the greater good” to the Taiwanese public: in response to criticisms of “increasing Taiwan’s defense spending,” he warned that such views are unlikely to gain international support. He added that if Taiwan does not invest in its own defense, it would be “extremely difficult” for the United States to provide defensive weapons under the Taiwan Relations Act.
Director Greene applied both pressure and reassurance, stating that once the Legislative Yuan begins reviewing the budget, he is willing to answer lawmakers’ questions. Put bluntly, this means “if Lai won’t go, the AIT will.” Strangely, while Greene is urging approval of the arms purchase plan, The New York Times obtained a classified Pentagon document titled the “Advantages Brief,” which warns that the United States is far behind China in preparing for new forms of warfare. The report states that the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has sufficient missiles to destroy advanced American weapons before they even approach Taiwan.
In his interview, Director Greene stressed that “peaceful dialogue must coexist with deterrence,” but the Pentagon report proves that Taiwan’s arms purchases fall far short of achieving effective deterrence. As the Legislative Yuan reviews the NT$1.25 trillion special budget, should it trust the Pentagon or AIT? If American arms cannot reach Taiwan in time, then Director Greene’s talk of “international support” amounts to nothing more than empty words.
If the AIT is willing to stand in for President Lai to answer lawmakers’ questions, then U.S.-Taiwan relations are not only described as “rock solid,” but the public may wonder which government is actually running Taiwan. Director Greene’s remarks resemble an ultimatum, and combined with the rapid White House push for a meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping next spring, they create a rather unusual atmosphere.
Director Greene addressed the public’s three major concerns: that increased arms purchases heighten cross-strait hostility, that defense spending impacts the economy, and that delivery delays remain unresolved, offering detailed explanations. Yet his arguments lack persuasiveness. Put simply, no one wants to buy an extremely expensive insurance policy that guarantees insufficient protection. Even if NATO members and Japan and South Korea are raising defense budgets, they are formal allies of the United States; Taiwan is not. Taiwan has no legal protections even against delayed deliveries.
The United States wants Taiwan to increase its defense budget to “demonstrate its will to self-defense,” hold off the PLA’s initial strike, and buy time for the U.S.–Japan alliance to intervene. China, wary of the risks of forced unification, would not easily start a war. But since the United States cut military aid to Ukraine, forced a territorial concession ceasefire, and after the PLA’s September 3 parade, this line of reasoning has become increasingly unconvincing. The Pentagon’s classified “Advantages Report” confirms the reality of shifting U.S.–China military power—and this alone contradicts Director Greene’s claim that “peaceful dialogue must coexist with deterrence.” Moreover, President Trump himself does not believe that claim; knowing deterrence cannot stop China’s military rise, he is focused on pursuing peaceful dialogue with Beijing, negotiating grand deals, and boosting Wall Street.
Director Greene has shown more respect toward the opposition than President Lai, visiting opposition party chairs before the Legislative Yuan session to seek support for the defense budget. But with the Pentagon document laying out the situation so plainly—especially as China and Russia jointly challenge the U.S.–Japan security framework—and with the White House remaining silent, how can the Taiwanese people feel assured enough to accept the bill? The United States should first explain the Pentagon’s conclusion that it is “unable to defend Taiwan.”